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Hurricane Season Forecast: |
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| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses) |
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Climatology
(in
parentheses)
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Issue
Date
8
December
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Issue
Date
4
April
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Issue
Date
1
June
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Issue
Date
5
August
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| Named
Storms |
(9.6) |
13
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15
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15
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| Hurricanes |
(5.9) |
7 |
8
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8
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| Intense
Hurricanes |
(2.3) |
3 |
4
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4
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| Net
Tropical Cyclone Activity |
(100%) |
125%
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160%
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160%
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Remarks:
current La Niña pathern should persist but weaken a little bit by the start of the 2008 Hurricane season. Nevertheless, conditions should favour above average hurricane activity over the Atlantic Bassin.
| Project
Atlantic Vortex 2008 forecast |
Established the 21st of Mar
2008 @ 18:07:08 UTC
Last update on the 15th
of Apr 2008 @ 00:06:18 UTC
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REGION
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POSSIBLE
NUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
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Cape
Verde
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4
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W-Atlantic
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2
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Caribbean
Sea
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1
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Gulf
of Mexico
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3
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NW-Atlantic
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2
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TOTAL:
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12*
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*:
In a typical average Atlantic hurricane season, one can potentially expect
3 Cape Verde cyclones, 2 Barbadian type, 1 Caribbean, 2 Mexican, and 1
off the eastern coast of the U.S, giving an average number of 9 cyclones
per year.
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System category
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Forecast
amount
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| Tropical storms |
7
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Hurricanes
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minimal hurricanes(1)
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+
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major hurricanes(2)
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5
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TOTAL:
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12
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(1): minimal hurricanes are
cyclones with sustained winds ranging between 75 to 110 mph (category 1,
and 2 hurricanes).
(2): major hurricanes are
cyclones with sustained winds ranging higher than 110 mph or (category
3, 4 and 5 hurricanes).
Remarks:
First series of tropical waves should begin migrating off the coast of
Africa by the 15th of May (+/- 5 days).
Our global numbers haven't changed much in respect to our 2007 forecast (last year)... but we reamin confident that this season should remain fairly moderate with an averag cyclone activity in compare to the 1995 - 2005 period.
Atlantic waters continue
to maintain a warm phase during the last 5 years or so... however, due to the recent passes of strong subtropical ridges and the combination of powerful winter storms, significant upwelling of cooler waters have generated large zones of "cold water spots" across the Atlantic.
Temperature gradient with height is favorable for thunderstom dynamics but the wind pattern is not that conducive for tropical cyclone formation, and the evolution of the current atmospheric configuration does not lean to a very ideal setting either (for the upcoming June-November period).
We will continue to analyze data from April to May to get a more closer view of the season's activity.
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