After a long period of relative calm, the tropics are heating back up:

1: a large area of disturb weather & low pressure is developing in the SW Caribbean Sea. Some computer models indicate that a tropical cyclone could form from this system over the next day or 2.

2: TD number 15 has formed from the tropical wave that passed south of our local area during the weekend. This system has be monitored closely ! As in the similiar context of hurricane Lenny in 1998, this cyclone could begin moving to the NE or ENE toward Puerto Rico & the Virgin islands. St Martin & Anguilla could be affected as well as the other surrounding islands of the northern Lesser Antilles. More information will be posted & sent via our email messages.

3: T Storm NANA formed yesterday from a low pressure system located mid-way between Africa & the Lesser Antilles. Because of very strong vertical wind shear this cyclone is not expected to intensify that much !

1: The low in the western Caribbean has developed into TD number 16. It is moving to the WNW to NW near the coast of Central America, thus no rapid intensification is expected.

2: Tropical Storm OMAR is near to becoming a hurricane as it moves just North of the ABC islands (Aruba, Curacao & Bonaire). Curacao reported winds out of the WSW gustsing to 43 mph this afternoon and a total of 1.72 inches of rain in just under 24 hours !

Omar is expected to become a hurricane. The offical forecast from the NHC calls for a 75 to 80 mph cyclone as it passes near the Virgin islands and the Northern Leeward islands... however our recent PAV algo run call for a cyclone with winds in the 90 mph range... the cyclone will move to the ENE then later to the NE in direction toward or very close Saba, St Maarten/St Martin Anguilla and the Virgin islands. Most or all these islands are under Hurricane Watch !