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| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses) |
|
Climatology
(in
parentheses)
|
Issue
Date
8
December
|
Issue
Date
4
April
|
Issue
Date
1
June
|
Issue
Date
5
August
|
| Named
Storms |
(9.6)
|
14
|
17
|
|
|
| Hurricanes |
(5.9)
|
7
|
9
|
|
|
| Intense
Hurricanes |
(2.3)
|
3
|
5
|
|
|
| Net
Tropical Cyclone Activity |
(100%)
|
140
|
185
|
|
|
Remarks:
current El Niño pathern is quickly dissipating and this trend favors
very active hurricane season.
| Project
Atlantic Vortex 2007 forecast |
Established the 01st of Feb
2007 @ 16:47:33 UTC
Last update on the 06th
of Apr 2007 @ 23:17:09 UTC
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REGION
|
POSSIBLE
NUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
|
|
Cape
Verde
|
4
|
|
W-Atlantic
|
2
|
|
Caribbean
Sea
|
2
|
|
Gulf
of Mexico
|
2
|
|
NW-Atlantic
|
2
|
|
TOTAL:
|
12*
|
*:
In a typical average Atlantic hurricane season, one can potentially expect
3 Cape Verde cyclones, 2 Barbadian type, 1 Caribbean, 2 Mexican, and 1
off the eastern coast of the U.S, giving an average number of 9 cyclones
per year.
|
System category
|
Forecast
amount
|
| Tropical storms |
7
|
Hurricanes
|
minimal hurricanes(1)
|
|
+
|
|
major hurricanes(2)
|
|
5
|
|
TOTAL:
|
12
|
(1): minimal hurricanes are
cyclones with sustained winds ranging between 75 to 110 mph (category 1,
and 2 hurricanes).
(2): major hurricanes are
cyclones with sustained winds ranging higher than 110 mph or (category
3, 4 and 5 hurricanes).
Remarks:
First series of tropical waves should begin migrating off the coast of
Africa by the 15th of May (+/- 5 days).
Atlantic waters continue
to maintain a warm phase during the last 5 years or so... Anomalies in
the Pacific, off the coast of Northern part of South America or "El Niño"
warm phase of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) is quickly fading
away... tropospheric combined with lower stratospheric circulation... and
conditions which seem to possibly generate strong tropical waves (African
disturbances) = may all lead to another season with above activity, although
we do "beleive" that the 2007 season will "likely" produce less cyclones
than the exceptionnal 2005 season which at some point (spawning some 28
cyclones) resembles closely that of an active typhoon season in the western
Pacific !
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